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    Poisson Distribution Calculator

    The Poisson probability of k events when λ are expected is e^(−λ) λᵏ / k!: with λ = 2, exactly 3 events has P = 0.18044704.

    P(X = 3) =

    0.180447044315484

    Full answer, then cut to fewer decimals (not rounded):

    • 0.180447044315484
    • 0.18044704431548
    • 0.1804470443154
    • 0.180447044315
    • 0.18044704431
    • 0.1804470443
    • 0.180447044
    • 0.18044704
    • 0.1804470
    • 0.180447
    • 0.18044
    • 0.1804
    • 0.180
    • 0.18
    • 0.1
    P(X ≤ 3)
    0.85712346
    P(X < 3)
    0.67667642
    P(X ≥ 3)
    0.32332358
    P(X > 3)
    0.14287654
    Mean = variance = λ
    2
    Standard deviation √λ
    1.41421
    Step-by-step solution
    1. P(X = k) = e^(−λ) λᵏ ÷ k!
    2. = e^(−2) × 2^3 ÷ 3!
    3. = 0.18044704

    Poisson Distribution Formula

    P(X = k) = e^(−λ) λᵏ ÷ k!

    λ mean number of events in the interval; mean = variance = λ

    Worked Example

    Exactly 3 events when 2 are expected (λ = 2):

    1. P(X = k) = e^(−λ) λᵏ ÷ k!
    2. = e^(−2) × 2^3 ÷ 3!
    3. = 0.18044704

    P(X < 3): 0.67667642 · P(X ≥ 3): 0.32332358 · P(X > 3): 0.14287654 · Mean = variance = λ: 2 · Standard deviation √λ: 1.41421

    Scaling λ to the interval

    λ must be the expected number of events in the interval you ask about. If calls arrive at 6 per hour, the number in 20 minutes has λ = 2. The Poisson model assumes events are independent and occur at a constant rate; bunching or a changing rate makes it inaccurate. It also approximates the binomial distribution when n is large and p small, with λ = np.

    More Engineering Mathematics Calculators

    Frequently asked questions

    What does the Poisson distribution model?

    Counts of independent events in a fixed interval of time or space at a constant average rate λ, such as arrivals per hour or defects per metre.

    What is P(X ≥ 1) for a Poisson variable?

    It is 1 − P(X = 0) = 1 − e^(−λ). For λ = 2 that is 0.864665.

    Sources

    Last reviewed: . Factors are stored exactly and computed with 50-digit decimal arithmetic. See how we verify conversion factors.

    Cite this page

    APA

    Scientific Converters. (2026, October 15). Poisson Distribution Calculator. Retrieved October 25, 2026, from https://scientificconverters.com/calculators/poisson-distribution-calculator/

    IEEE

    Scientific Converters, "Poisson Distribution Calculator," scientificconverters.com. Accessed: Oct. 25, 2026. [Online]. Available: https://scientificconverters.com/calculators/poisson-distribution-calculator/

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